The global commodity market has remained relatively stable this year, showing minimal fluctuations apart from specific products impacted by policy changesThis year, the overall economic growth has been tepid worldwide, leading to subdued demand across various sectors.

Looking ahead, uncertainty continues to dominate market trends, and several critical factors warrant attentionFor instance, the potential changes in energy trade policies under the new U.Sadministration and the mid- to long-term prospects for global green development will significantly influence the commodity marketsThese considerations are paramount for market participants, as they could shape the trajectory of prices and supply chains.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the commodity price index saw a slight change of only 0.8% from August to August of this yearThis indicates a general stability within the prices

Specifically, energy and food price indices fell by 5.01% and 3.07%, respectively, while various metals, including industrial and precious metals, experienced price adjustments with increases of 0.36%, 25.78%, and 1.80%. Notably, precious metals such as gold emerged as significant beneficiaries of this stable yet evolving market landscape.

Despite fluctuating oil prices within the range of $70 to $80 per barrel for most of the year, geopolitical conflicts have caused spikes, with prices hitting over $90 per barrel briefly before recedingThe Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), along with non-OPEC oil-producing nations, has maintained a firm grip on oil prices through production cutsThis year, the projection expects oil to close near $70 per barrel by year's endAnalyzing the trends in oil prices reveals several key characteristics: the impact of geopolitical conflicts on oil prices has diminished, indicating a reduced concern for the stability of global energy supply chains and transportation routes

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Additionally, weak economic conditions worldwide have stunted growth in oil demand, leading to a generally pessimistic market outlook and diminished speculative trading activity.

A notable observation this year within the base metals market is the contrasting pricing trends of copper and aluminumCopper prices have remained robust, surging from $8,100 per ton at the beginning of the year to an expected close above $9,000 per ton, chiefly driven by explosive growth in the electric vehicle sectorConversely, aluminum prices have struggled, hovering in the range of $2,200 to $2,600 per ton due to oversupply and lackluster demandNickel, on the other hand, has faced extreme volatility, initially peaking in May before experiencing a downward freefallThe export policies of Indonesia, being a significant global nickel producer, play a crucial role in influencing market prices.

In terms of precious metals, 2024 has featured a generally upward trend in pricing for gold and silver

Gold prices have seen a dramatic increase, climbing from $2,060 per ounce at the start of the year to a peak of $2,801 per ounce by the end of October, spurred primarily by geopolitical risks and inflation concerns prompting investors to seek safety in goldLooking into the near future, it’s anticipated that precious metal prices may experience mild fluctuations, albeit sustained demand from investors is likely to continue supporting their long-term valuation.

On the agricultural front, a report published by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in December updated predictions for global grain output this year to 2.841 billion tons, marking the second-highest level on recordIncreased corn production in countries such as Argentina, Brazil, and Turkey has contributed significantly to this forecast, while positive prospects for wheat crops are also noted in Asian nations

The FAO expects that food supply will remain ample this year, with rice and oilseed production anticipated to reach historical highsHowever, factors such as extreme weather events, geopolitical tensions, and abrupt policy changes continue to pose risks to the balance between food supply and demand, resulting in elevated import costs and heightened food insecurity.

When looking at food prices, corn, soybean, and wheat have shown steady but declining trendsA critical issue this year has been the impact of regional conflicts and drought conditions on maritime transport routes, which have exacerbated the increase in food import costsThe FAO predicts that global food import expenses could exceed $2 trillion this year, reflecting a 2.5% year-on-year increase, which significantly affects developing countries that rely heavily on food imports.

As we forecast the international commodity market into 2025, predictions from various authoritative global bodies suggest a cautiously optimistic outlook.

Firstly, regarding economic growth rates, the IMF anticipates global economic growth to hover around 3.2% over the next two years, echoed by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), predicting a growth rate of 3.3% in 2025, representing a slight uptick from 3.2% in 2024. In addition, the World Bank's Global Economic Outlook predicts a growth rate of about 2.6% for 2024, anticipating an increase to 2.7% in the following year, supported by growth in trade and investment

While a general recovery in the global economy appears plausible, persistent geopolitical tensions and potential de-globalization policies from the newly-elected U.Sadministration pose significant risks to supply chain safety and stability.

Secondly, in terms of demand, a rebound seems plausibleThe recovery of the global economy has altered the previously grim expectations for demand in the commodity sectorChina, recognized as a major demand driver for global commodities, is projected to positively influence commodity prices through economic growth in the coming years, particularly boosting demand for energy and metalsWith increased demand from principal economies, the need for metals related to energy transition is also expected to rise substantially.

Meanwhile, supply is likely to remain stableTaking oil and gas production as a case in point, it is anticipated that the new U.S

administration will significantly ease regulations surrounding oil and gas exploration and production, possibly driving the highest levels of investment and output in these sectorsHowever, geopolitical risks could still disrupt commodity supply chains, while the rising frequency of extreme weather incidents presents significant challenges to energy supply security, particularly impacting European energy supplies.

Lastly, it is crucial to delve into specific market segments.

For the crude oil market, demand growth is expected to continue slowingThe International Energy Agency's December report estimates a daily global oil demand growth of 840,000 barrels for 2024, adjusting down from previous estimatesOPEC has lowered its oil demand growth expectations five times this yearA recent Goldman Sachs report posits an average international oil price of around $76 per barrel for 2024, predicting prices will remain within the range of $70 to $85 per barrel.

Turning to the natural gas market, price fluctuations are anticipated to moderate

The U.SEnergy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts a multitude of factors that will affect the global natural gas landscape in 2025, though regional pricing disparities are significantThe demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is likely to rise, especially as Europe continues importing large quantities of U.SLNG, with the Asia-Pacific region expected to boost its LNG consumption as wellServing as a transitional energy source, natural gas consumption may peak by 2030, with new liquefaction projects expected to increase from 2025 onwards, gradually achieving supply-demand equilibrium.

In the global metals market, prices are projected to continue fluctuating downwardAnalysts foresee adjustments in the global new energy sector, which will temper the demand for essential metalsThe dramatic upsurge in copper prices prompted by demand this year is not expected to repeat, as growth could slow down and prices stabilize

Additionally, the growth momentum for electric vehicles is expected to wane, causing significant declines in related mineral demands, such as lithium and nickelFurthermore, the oversupply issue surrounding iron ore is likely to worsen in 2024, contributing to continued market pressure on prices in 2025.

Finally, the global food market will face a mix of opportunities and challengesPredictably, the impact of extreme weather on agricultural production is intensifying, combined with soaring costs of essential inputs like energy and fertilizers, leading to expected declines in wheat, corn, and sugar outputs in the coming yearHowever, Asia is projected to see gains in rice productionAdditionally, increasing consumption demands from developing countries are likely to enhance output in meat, dairy, and fisheries.

Nonetheless, issues surrounding food security remain critically unresolved